Corona Virus 08 October

https://www.mydigitian.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Corona-Virus-08-October.pdf

Please click the  link above for  the main Dosier (Figures , Graphs & Projections)

— The Blog is written by Saugata Banerjee the view is that of Author’s own assessment

The second Surge continued for the third month with Europe and North America leading  well albeit in a falling rate.

Good news are  :

  1. Death rate has fallen 
  2. Mortality is falling continuously for the first time below 3 per 100 and the virus is looking less ominous. (It is expected to be close to 2 per  100  in its full cycle)
  3. For the first time Recovery rate is higher than infection rate
  4. More than 90 countries are reporting zero infection
  5.  Vaccines – too many late stage candidates in various countries  so it is expected by January 2021 the first few are out but there will logistics issue to reach every country and community through out the 2021 and beyond
  6. Africa is showing strange resilience as a result hopefully the damage to the poorest countries will be lower.

Bad News are : 

1.  It clearly shows that  that it will be going to be there atleast  a year or so and if you are going to open up and remove  restriction then it will affect more people, like what is happening with Europe and  North America.

2. BRICS countries are  still passing through the first Phase, there will be second phase for them as well. It is thus expected to  be cyclical. Hopefully with medicine and vaccine the effects will be gradually falling

Economy :

Now the economic crisis  phase started so our focus has changed now mainly to Economic impact of COVID :

  1.  There is a clear sign that GDP of all countries have taken  a hit and gone back by 3-5 years except China — this will have effect on Employment, Inflation,  currency devaluation, Sovereign debt defaults. The economic journey for most of the affected countries will be very slow from here onwards throughout 2021.
  2. Virtualization has become faster, working from remote will be the norm going forward,  the people will start working against all odds with mask on, social distancing.
  3. Africa — However all of their  TOP 8 economies are badly affected  so for the continent  the economy will be under lot of pressure –  as limited capital formation, drying up of donor fund as they are affected as well
  4.  Given the  continuous surge in India and Brazil, the prices of cash crops will go up, so the prices of commodities, only exception will be Energy. The supply capacity of  oil  is so high that the price will remain subdued for atleast 12 months;
  5.  Next 6 months will  see lots of bankruptcy as well  —  Energy, Aviation,  Entertainment, Hospitality will be affected. 
  6.  Many countries will be in deep recession from mid 2021. The expectation that post pandemic  the economy will bounce back to its earliest level will not be the case for sure for 2021.  There will be volatility all around.
  7. Although stock markets indices are doing great in most leading markets but the markets are lopsided and shining for few sectors only – IT & Software space, virtual sectors and Pharmaceuticals  but most sectors after initial recovery euphoria is going to be under severe recession

 

In our 4th major review(implying failure to project)  we are projecting now that by Q1 2021  the Pandemic will almost subside and the expected infection will be around 65 million (double from current figure). However  our Death estimations remain still valid  will be overshoot by 20%-30% to 160 thousands.    

We are tracking monthly to understand the trend of the effect on humanity, society and economy.  We are trying to project the endgame which appears to be difficult but will provide guidance to the   the Society, Commercial Organization, Government and Individual so that a proper survival strategy to come out of financial and psychological effect can be drawn. We are simply basing our facts on figures as published without adding any color but our interpretation may differ with yours, so read it cautiously and share your comments.

Please click the link  below to see the figures, Charts and Analysis 

https://www.mydigitian.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Corona-Virus-08-October.pdf